New Poll Shows Democrat Jasmeet Bains in Dead Heat Against Republican David Valadao

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders Rising & Empowering Political Action Committee (ASPIRE PAC), in collaboration with SEIU California, today released new polling showing Jasmeet Bains as the strongest Democratic candidate against Republican David Valadao and the clear frontrunner to flip California’s 22nd Congressional District. 

A poll of 547 voters, conducted before California’s redistricting effort, shows Bains in a statistical dead heat on the initial ballot ask—each drawing 42% support, with 17% undecided. No other Democratic candidate reached over 40% support among Central Valley voters.

The poll further shows Bains’  ability to win over voters once they learn more about her and her opponent. After receiving additional information about both candidates, Bains’ support jumps to 45%, while Valadao’s falls to 40%, with 15% of voters still undecided.

“Dr. Jasmeet Bains is best-positioned to flip this seat and help Democrats retake the majority in Congress. Working families are struggling to get by, and Republican David Valadao voted to take health care away from them because Donald Trump demanded it. Central Valley voters deserve better and Dr. Bains is ready to deliver new leadership that puts them first,” said ASPIRE Chair Marilyn Strickland. 

“It’s not surprising that Dr. Jasmeet Bains is performing well against David Valadao: she’s spent her life fighting for the very people Valadao has voted to leave behind. Whether she’s advocating for her district in Sacramento, battling wildfires as a frontline medic, or treating patients in her community, Dr. Bains has shown she cares deeply about the people of the Central Valley,” said Riko Mendez, Chief Elected Officer of SEIU Local 521 and Executive Board Member of SEIU California,

The new California maps could also see more Democrats added to the Central Valley district, which already has a Democratic registration advantage.

The poll results can be viewed HERE. Public Policy Polling surveyed 547 voters from California’s 22nd Congressional District from August 6 – 8, 2025. The margin of error is ± 4.2%.

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